Interview on economy with Amir Suhail.

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The insanity of Our Economic Policy

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“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” Einstein Pakistan is an IMF addict: we have had 12-13 IMF programs in the last 30 years and have spent more than 22 years in a program (more if you count program monitoring). So, what will change with another program? Will both Pakistan and IMF repeat the past and prove insanity as in Einstein’s maxim.  IMF gave us a clean bill of health about 2 years ago, yet we are in another BOP crisis. You can see the exchange rate collapsing. Will the doctor repeat the old medicine?   While policy, IMF and our policy remain engaged in a dismal dance, the economy beyond the control of the MOF chugs along creating a middle class.  People are largely better off despite the shenanigans of the trio (MOF, IMF and pundits). People have worked hard to build a life for themselves whether through migration or some trading and even informal work at home.  But then the trio (IMF, M...
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Imperial Democracy

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Typically, ‘elected’ dynastic governments start to unravel by their third year thanks to a combination of incompetence and greed. It is then that the rumour of a technocratic setup starts and politicians start to fan it. Recently, government officials came out with statements to the effect that the constitution does not allow for a technocratic setup and that there is no room for technocrats in Pakistan. The issue of technocrats really needs careful analysis here. Why is there a demand for technocracy? People repeatedly see that elected governments are not delivering governance and good public service. Instead they slip into whimsical, ‘kitchen cabinet’ government style-where an inner circle of the unelected starts to take arbitrary decisions. The prime minister wants to run the country in imperial fashion and ministers close to him act like imperial lords by passing all laws. Rumours of corruption grow large. Dynastic ambitions reveal themselves in children being thrown into dec...
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Get the basics right!

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This is a term that my friend Meekal used with me today. All we need is get the basics right! Others around the table also yelled, “it is not rocket science!” All we need is “Get the basics right!” My question “what are the basics?” was drowned out! We all know what the basics are without actually talking about it. This is how economics is done in Pakistan. With persistence I found out what the basics were. · Get inflation down · Increase revenues · Increase exports · Increase growth Makes it easy! Does it not! We wish all the good things and call it economics. For sixty years Plan after Plan as wished for these good things, increase production, increase growth, increase exports. It is just so sad that the economy will not listen to these economists and deliver all good things like production, growth and exports. And not to forget that all this must happen with low inflation. Of course we must keep asking for more revenues and every discussion must not well-worn examples of the rich no...
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